Astoria believes that this late cycle, pro-cyclical rally persists, for now, until either (1) liquidity starts to deteriorate (2) inflation materially rises (3) the synchronized global earnings recovery collapses. In the second half of ‘18, higher dispersion will set in as Fed rate hikes, a decline in liquidity, and further yield curve flattening will have distinct portfolio implications. Hence, our bullish ideas are centered around the first 2 quarters.
