Where do we go from here?

Image from Vecteezy

The most important point we wanted to communicate is that tariffs were a known unknown. The S&P fell 40% at one point during COVID (an invisible enemy, making it a truly an unknown unknown), but tariffs have been well-telegraphed by this administration. Should the market have fallen 10% in two days?

The real crux of the matter is that stocks were wildly overbought and expensive. The 2x NVDA long ETF saw $8 billion in inflows last year, while the 2x MicroStrategy ETF took in several billion in assets as well. Leverage tends to expand during periods of low volatility and rising prices, and greed sets in. We saw that last year.

We have been advocating for diversification and spreading our bets across a variety of asset classes. Our portfolios were often compared against the S&P 500. However, a globally diversified portfolio is what works during periods of large left-tail risks, such as what we are experiencing in 2025. For instance, year-to-date through 4/3/2025, our globally diversified portfolio of 70% equities and 30% bonds is down 2.75%, compared to a decline of 8.3% for the S&P 500. Meanwhile, our 50/50 model is down only 1.1% as of 4/3/2025. Diversification remains one of the few free lunches available—and it's something we hold near and dear. Please note that past performance is not indicative of future results.

Other Key Points We Want to Highlight:

1. Preparation Through Diversification

We prepared for this uncertainty. As mentioned, we have been maintaining a diversified portfolio that includes stocks, bonds, alternatives, and real assets. Even within fixed income, we have spread our risks across various sectors. Same with equities.

2. Why Does Astoria Own International Stocks?

For crises like this. After years of investor pushback, international stocks are now proving their worth—especially on a relative basis. They serve as an important diversification tool during extreme risk-off periods. MSCI EAFE is +6.2% and MSCI Emerging Markets is +2.7% thru 4/4 while the S&P 500 is -8.3% as previously mentioned.

3. Astoria's Market Insights

On February 10, we gave an interview with Barron titled Astoria’s John Davi: Why the Market Is Headed for a ‘Big, Fat Correction’. We are not trying to take a victory lap for what has transpired. A significant amount of wealth destruction has occurred. However, this reinforces the value of Astoria’s portfolio management process, which is forward-looking, preaches diversification, and can be more dynamic compared to the ‘set it and forget it’ model. Stocks Are Headed for a ‘Big, Fat Correction,’ Says Astoria’s John Davi.

4. Let’s Connect

I will be available in the coming days. Let’s schedule a call to discuss any questions you may have. Book time with John Davi.

5. Recent Discussions on Tariffs

We addressed tariffs in yesterday’s Group CIO call. If you have not joined these sessions, I would strongly recommend Listen here.

6. Podcast Feature

We recently discussed our quantitative stock selection process on Bloomberg. Astoria’s Davi on Mitigating Concentration Risk: Inside Active - Bloomberg.

Warranties & Disclaimer

There are no warranties implied. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Information presented herein is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. The returns in this report are based on data from frequently used indices and ETFs. This information contained herein has been prepared by Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC on the basis of publicly available information, internally developed data, and other third-party sources believed to be reliable. Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC has not sought to independently verify information obtained from public and third-party sources and makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of such information. Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC is a registered investment adviser located in New York. Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC may only transact business in those states in which it is registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements.

Any third-party websites provided on www.astoriaadvisors.com are strictly for informational purposes and for convenience. These third-party websites are publicly available and do not belong to Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC. We do not administer the content or control it. We cannot be held liable for the accuracy, time-sensitive nature, or viability of any information shown on these sites. The material in these links is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast or investment advice by Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC, and does not constitute a recommendation, offer, or solicitation for any security or any investment strategy. The appearance of such third-party material on our website does not imply our endorsement of the third-party website. We are not responsible for your use of the linked site or its content. Once you leave Astoria Portfolio Advisors LLC's website, you will be subject to the terms of use and privacy policies of the third-party website. Refer here for more details.

Performance is calculated based on live track records consisting of the historical constituents and weights. Full trailing returns are available upon request. Astoria Portfolio Advisors is a registered investment adviser. Information presented herein is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Readers of the information contained in this Performance Summary should be aware that any action taken by the viewer/reader based on this information is taken at their own risk. This information does not address individual situations and should not be construed or viewed as any type of individual or group recommendation. The model delivery performance shown represents only the results of Astoria Portfolio Advisors' model portfolios for the relevant time period and does not represent the results of the actual trading of investor assets. Model portfolio performance is the result of the application of the Astoria Portfolio Advisors proprietary investment process. Model performance has inherent limitations. The results are theoretical and do not reflect any investor’s actual experience with owning, trading or managing an actual investment account. Thus, the performance shown does not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors had or might have had on decision-making if actual investor money had been managed. Indices are typically not available for direct investment, are unmanaged, and do not incur fees or expenses.

The model delivery performance results are Net of Astoria Portfolio Advisors’ fee and do not include any additional advisory fees charged by advisors employing Astoria’s models. Any additional fees charged by an advisor will reduce an investor’s return. The data used to calculate the model performance was obtained from sources deemed reliable and then organized and presented by Astoria Portfolio Advisors. The performance calculations have not been audited by any third party. Actual performance of client portfolios may differ materially due to the timing related to additional client deposits or withdrawals and the actual deployment and investment of a client portfolio, the reinvestment of dividends, the length of time various positions are held, the client’s objectives and restrictions, and fees and expenses incurred by any specific individual portfolio.

Benchmarks: The Dynamic 70/30 Strategy performance results shown are compared to the performance of 70% MSCI All Country World Index (NDUEACWF) and 30% Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index (LEGATRUU). The Dynamic 50/50 Strategy performance results shown are compared to the performance of 50% MSCI All Country World Index (NDUEACWF) and 50% Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index (LEGATRUU).

Return Comparison: Both the MSCI All Country World Index and the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond indices were chosen as they are generally well recognized as an indicator or representation of the stock and bond market and include a cross-section of holdings.